All 7 UA/DL flights on time per gocho.com live board as of 10:15 EDT. The forward risk picture is clear: IAD has light rain right now with 78% all-day precip — today's dominant weather risk hub, reversing its usual role as the clean anchor. UA4265 (IAD→CHO, sched 11:43 PM) departs Dulles late at night directly into this system — plan for 12:00–12:20 AM actual arrival. ORD carries a 46% afternoon convective chance with the FAA summer cap active through October 24, amplifying any GDP. UA5565 (arr 5:06 PM) turns to UA5606 (dep 5:52 PM) in 46 minutes — comfortable but confirm EDCT before push. UA5610 (sched 8:55 PM) departs ORD at 6:00 PM CDT into the peak convective window — plan for 9:20–10:00 PM actual. The good news: ATL is the clean hub at 10%, and DL1289 is currently tracking 10 minutes ahead of its 11:13 PM schedule.
| Flight | Status | Type | Published Time |
Originally Scheduled |
Analyst Est. | Risk | Action | ▾ |
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Dulles is reporting light rain right now with a 78% all-day precipitation chance — the highest of any hub tonight. This reverses IAD's usual role as the clean anchor. UA4265 (sched arr 11:43 PM) departs IAD ~10:58 PM when the frontal system may still be active — plan for a 12:00–12:20 AM CHO arrival. June 2026 saw a major D.C. tri-airport (DCA/IAD/BWI) ground stop event with the same frontal pattern.
ORD is clear this morning but 46% afternoon convective chance builds. The FAA summer flight cap at ORD (active through October 24) reduces hourly acceptance rates — any weather-triggered GDP cascades faster than pre-cap. UA5565 (dep ORD ~2 PM CDT) catches a relatively clear window. UA5610 (dep ORD ~6 PM CDT) is in the peak convective risk window — monitor ORD radar from 5 PM CDT. Analyst estimate: 9:20–10:00 PM CHO arrival.
Atlanta has only 10% precipitation chance today — the cleanest hub in the system. DL1289 (ATL→CHO, orig sched 11:13 PM) is showing an 11:03 PM update on gocho.com — the airline currently projects it arriving 10 minutes early. DL5266 CHO→ATL departure also benefits. DL5320 LGA is low risk at 25%. The DL late-night window is the most predictable part of this shift.
UA5565 arrives 5:06 PM · UA5606 departs 5:52 PM — a 46-minute turn window that is comfortable but not slack. Historical 48% delay rate on the ORD→CHO route means a minor slip is possible. Stage crew and equipment pre-arrival. Confirm EDCT status with dispatch before UA5606 pushback — ORD afternoon convective risk is building during this turn.